Outlook Perdagangan 2022 | Pesan
Mendag Jaga Pertumbuhan Ekspor dan Kendalikan Inflasi | OBROLANBISNIS.com — Menteri Perdagangan Muhammad Lutfi menegaskan, Kementerian Perdagangan berkomitmen untuk terus menjaga momentum pertumbuhan ekspor dan pengendalian inflasi volatile food di tahun 2022 melalui stabilisasi harga bahan pokok.
“Sejumlah langkah strategis akan dilakukan agar pemulihan kinerja perdagangan terus berlanjut,” sebut Mendag Lutfi dalam “Konferensi Pers Outlook Perdagangan 2022” yang digelar secara virtual hari ini, Selasa, 18 Januari 2022.
Turut hadir sebagai narasumber yaitu Ketua Kamar Dagang Indonesia (Kadin) Arsjad Rasjid dan Guru Besar Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia Prof Dr Muhammad Ikhsan SE MA.
Momentum pertumbuhan ekspor perlu dijaga mengingat capaian kinerja ekspor Indonesia pada 2021, yang terdiri atas ekspor migas dan nonmigas, telah memecahkan rekor tertinggi dalam sejarah dengan nilai USD 231,54 miliar. Besaran ini bahkan mengalahkan nilai ekspor tertinggi Indonesia yang selama ini dicatatkan pada 2011 sebesar USD 203,50 miliar.
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“Ekspor Indonesia di 2021 menembus angka USD 231,54 Miliar. Angka ini merupakan yang tertinggi, melampaui catatan nilai ekspor tertinggi Indonesia selama ini di 2011 yang sebesar USD 203,50 miliar,” ungkap Mendag Lutfi.
Mendag Lutfi menambahkan, nilai ekspor 2021 yang menjadi rekor baru ini didominasi oleh produk-produk manufaktur. Produk-produk tersebut adalah CPO dan turunannya, besi baja, produk elektronik dan elektronika, serta kendaraan bermotor dan suku cadangnya. “Empat dari lima produk ekspor utama di 2021 merupakan produk manufaktur,” kata Mendag Lutfi.
Secara rinci, lima komoditas ekspor nonmigas terbesar Indonesia pada 2021 adalah batu bara dengan nilai USD 32,84 miliar, CPO (USD 32,83 miliar), besi baja (USD 20,95 miliar), produk elektronik dan elektronika (USD 11,80 miliar), serta kendaraan bermotor dan suku cadangnya (USD 8,64 miliar).
Sementara itu, neraca perdagangan kumulatif Indonesia periode Januari–Desember 2021 mencatatkan surplus sebesar USD 35,54 miliar. Surplus tersebut diperoleh dari defisit neraca migas sebesar USD 13,25 miliar dan surplus neraca nonmigas sebesar USD 48,60 miliar. Nilai surplus nonmigas 2021 tersebut turut mencatatkan rekor sebagai surplus nonmigas terbesar sepanjang sejarah.
Bila dibandingkan dengan ekspor 2020 yang mencatatkan nilai USD 163,19 miliar, ekspor 2021 tumbuh hingga sebesar 41,88 persen. Di sisi lain, impor 2021 tercatat sebesar USD 196,20 miliar atau tumbuh 38,59 persen dibanding impor 2020 yang sebesar USD 141,57 miliar.
Mendag Lutfi menyampaikan, pada 2021 surplus perdagangan tertinggi Indonesia dengan negara mitra dicatatkan oleh perdagangan dengan Amerika Serikat (AS) dengan nilai USD 14,52 miliar, disusul dengan Filipina (USD 7,33 miliar), dan India (USD 5,62 miliar).
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Sementara perdagangan Indonesia dengan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok (RRT) pada 2021 mengalami defisit sebesar USD 2,45 miliar. Namun, defisit ini berkurang hingga 68,84 persen dibandingkan pada 2020 yang sebesar USD 7,85 miliar.
Lebih lanjut Mendag Lutfi juga menyampaikan, Kemendag akan terus menjaga momentum pertumbuhan ekspor di tahun 2022. Sejumlah tantangan yang menjadi perhatian utama Mendag Lutfi adalah kebijakan tapering off, hambatan logistik dunia, krisis energi, serta strategi menghadapi pandemi Covid-19.
“Indonesia memperhatikan kebijakan tapering off oleh Amerika Serikat. Selain itu, diharapkan penyelesaian gangguan logistik global akan lebih baik pada 2022. Pemerintah juga tengah menyiapkan sejumlah langkah strategis untuk mengatasi krisis energi dalam perekonomian global serta terus melakukan upaya pengendalian pandemi Covid-19. Langkah ini perlu dilakukan untuk mendorong kinerja perdagangan dan menjaga momentum pertumbuhan ekspor,” tegasnya.
Terkait perjanjian dagang, Mendag Lutfi menambahkan saat ini yang sedang diupayakan dan menuju tahap penyelesaian di antaranya dengan Uni Emirat Arab yang diharapkan dapat selesai Maret 2022.
Selanjutnya, Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) dengan Bangladesh yang juga dalam tahap penyelesaian di tahun 2022.
“Selanjutnya, Tunisia yang akan dipercepat. Sedangkan dengan Turki dan Iran akan segera dimulai kembali putarannya. Untuk Uni Eropa juga sudah memasuki putaran kesebelas dan ditargetkan selesai akhir 2022. Beberapa perundingan dengan negara mitra dagang lainnya yang sudah memasuki tahap awal juga akan diteruskan, di antaranya India, Kanada, Pakistan untuk perdagangan barang, dan Chile untuk perdagangan jasa,” ujar Mendag Lutfi.
Tekan Inflasi Volatile Food
Sementara itu, di sektor perdagangan dalam negeri, Mendag Lutfi mengungkapkan, secara umum inflasi volatile food sepanjang 2021 sebesar 3,20 persen YoY, relatif rendah dibanding tahun sebelumnya sebesar 3,62 persen YoY. Pada 2021, volatile food menyumbang 16 persen dari keseluruhan inflasi yang tercatat sebesar 1,87 persen YoY.
Jika dilihat dinamika inflasi selama empat tahun terakhir, terdapat dua periode kenaikan harga setiap tahunnya, yakni pada periode Puasa–Lebaran serta Natal–Tahun Baru.
Namun, pada periode Puasa–Lebaran 2021, inflasi volatile food di bawah satu persen. Hal ini menunjukan tidak terjadi kenaikan harga yang terlalu signifikan. Hal ini disebabkan oleh pasokan pangan yang cukup dan permintaan yang belum pulih sepenuhnya akibat pandemi.
Sementara pada periode Natal dan Tahun Baru 2021, komoditas yang menyumbang inflasi antara lain telur, daging ayam, minyak goreng, cabai rawit merah, dan daging sapi.
“Akan tetapi jika dilihat dari harga-harga tersebut, saat ini cabai sudah turun signifikan dibanding akhir tahun lalu. Sementara, telur saat ini harganya sudah mendekati harga acuan,” jelas Mendag Lutfi.
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Sementara Ikhsan menyampaikan, inflasi harus dijaga di tingkat normal yaitu 3+1 persen. Sementara pada 2021, inflasi tercatat sebesar 1,87 persen yang artinya di bawah normal. Capaian 2021 merefleksikan permintaan yang masih rendah.
Selain itu, juga karena keberhasilan dalam mengendalikan inflasi volatile food yang terendah selama empat tahun terakhir. Menjaga inflasi tetap normal dilakukan dengan menjaga produksi, menjaga perubahan suplai agar stok di dalam negeri tetap ada, serta menjaga agar administered prices tidak naik.
Menurut Ikhsan, pada 2022 terdapat beberapa risiko yang harus dihadapi. Di antaranya mengenai volatile food, kenaikan harga pangan pada Lebaran, Natal, dan Tahun Baru harus dijaga. Selain itu, adanya kenaikan harga komoditas seperti minyak goreng serta antisipasi kondisi cuaca.
“Hal tersebut harus diwaspadai terutama pada triwulan pertama. Untuk itu perlu disiapkan mitigasi, misalnya dengan meningkatkan stok supaya inflasi pada volatile food dapat dijaga. Yang harus juga diantisipasi adalah kenaikan harga energi. Diharapkan hal ini akan bergerak ke pola normal sehingga tekanan pada administered prices bisa berkurang,” terang Ikhsan.
Di sisi lain, Arsjad mengungkapkan, sisi kebijakan maupun reformasi struktural yang sedang dijalankan sangat membantu. Selain itu, Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja akan membuat investasi lebih banyak lagi dan meningkatkan kemudahan berusaha bagi usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah.
“Pada 2022, hal yang harus ditingkatkan bersama-sama adalah penyerapan tenaga kerja. Dilihat dari sisi investasi, penyerapan tenaga kerja tercatat sebesar 5,9 persen secara tahunan. Jadi, masih ada pekerjaan rumah bagaimana penyerapan tenaga kerja lebih optimal. Selain itu, yang harus diperhatikan juga terkait logistik agar peluang yang ada dapat dimaksimalisasi,” ujar Arsjad. ***
Trade Outlook 2022 | Message
Minister of Trade Maintains Export Growth and Controls Inflation | OBROLANBISNIS.com — Minister of Trade Muhammad Lutfi emphasized that the Ministry of Trade is committed to continuing to maintain the momentum of export growth and controlling volatile food inflation in 2022 through stabilization of staple food prices.
“A number of strategic steps will be taken so that the recovery of trade performance will continue,” said Trade Minister Lutfi in the “Trade Outlook 2022 Press Conference” which was held virtually today, Tuesday, January 18, 2022.
Also present as resource persons were the Chairman of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (Kadin) Arsjad Rasjid and Professor of the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia Prof. Dr. Muhammad Ikhsan SE MA.
Export growth momentum needs to be maintained considering that Indonesia’s export performance in 2021, which consists of oil and gas and non-oil and gas exports, has broken a record high in history with a value of USD 231.54 billion. This amount even beats Indonesia’s highest export value recorded in 2011 of USD 203.50 billion.
“Indonesia’s exports in 2021 will reach USD 231.54 billion. This figure is the highest, surpassing the record of Indonesia’s highest export value so far in 2011 which amounted to USD 203.50 billion,” said Trade Minister Lutfi.
Trade Minister Lutfi added that the export value for 2021, which was a new record, was dominated by manufactured products. These products are CPO and its derivatives, steel, electronic and electronic products, as well as motor vehicles and their spare parts. “Four of the five main export products in 2021 will be manufactured products,” said Trade Minister Lutfi.
In detail, Indonesia’s five largest non-oil and gas export commodities in 2021 are coal with a value of USD 32.84 billion, CPO (USD 32.83 billion), steel (USD 20.95 billion), electronic and electronic products (USD 11.80 billion). billion), as well as motor vehicles and their spare parts (USD 8.64 billion).
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s cumulative trade balance for the January–December 2021 period recorded a surplus of USD 35.54 billion. The surplus was obtained from the oil and gas balance deficit of USD 13.25 billion and the non-oil and gas balance surplus of USD 48.60 billion. The value of the 2021 non-oil and gas surplus also recorded a record as the largest non-oil and gas surplus in history.
When compared to exports in 2020 which recorded a value of USD 163.19 billion, exports in 2021 grew by 41.88 percent. On the other hand, imports in 2021 were recorded at USD 196.20 billion or grew 38.59 percent compared to imports in 2020 which amounted to USD 141.57 billion.
Trade Minister Lutfi said that in 2021 Indonesia’s highest trade surplus with partner countries was recorded by trade with the United States (US) with a value of USD 14.52 billion, followed by the Philippines (USD 7.33 billion) and India (USD 5.62 billion).
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s trade with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 2021 will experience a deficit of USD 2.45 billion. However, this deficit was reduced by 68.84 percent compared to 2020 which amounted to USD 7.85 billion.
Furthermore, the Minister of Trade Lutfi also said that the Ministry of Trade will continue to maintain the momentum of export growth in 2022. A number of challenges that are the main concern of the Minister of Trade Lutfi are the tapering off policy, global logistical barriers, the energy crisis, and strategies to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Indonesia pays attention to the tapering off policy by the United States. In addition, it is hoped that the resolution of global logistical disruptions will be better in 2022. The government is also preparing a number of strategic steps to overcome the energy crisis in the global economy and continue to make efforts to control the Covid-19 pandemic. This step needs to be taken to boost trade performance and maintain export growth momentum,” he said.
Regarding the trade agreement, the Trade Minister Lutfi added that currently efforts are being made and are heading to the completion stage, including with the United Arab Emirates, which is expected to be completed in March 2022.
Furthermore, the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with Bangladesh is also in the completion stage in 2022.
“Furthermore, Tunisia will be accelerated. Meanwhile, with Turkey and Iran will soon restart the round. The European Union has also entered the eleventh round and is targeted for completion by the end of 2022. Several negotiations with other trading partner countries that have entered the early stages will also be continued, including India, Canada, Pakistan for trade in goods, and Chile for trade in services, “said the Minister of Trade, Lutfi.
Suppress Volatile Food Inflation
Meanwhile, in the domestic trade sector, Trade Minister Lutfi revealed that in general volatile food inflation throughout 2021 was 3.20 percent YoY, relatively low compared to the previous year at 3.62 percent YoY. In 2021, volatile foods accounted for 16 percent of the overall inflation which was recorded at 1.87 percent YoY.
If we look at the dynamics of inflation over the last four years, there are two periods of price increase each year, namely during the fasting period – Eid and Christmas – New Year.
However, in the period of Fasting – Lebaran 2021, volatile food inflation is below one percent. This shows that there is no significant increase in prices. This is due to sufficient food supply and demand that has not fully recovered due to the pandemic.
Meanwhile, during the Christmas and New Year 2021 periods, commodities that contribute to inflation include eggs, chicken meat, cooking oil, red chili peppers, and beef.
“However, if you look at these prices, chili peppers have fallen significantly compared to the end of last year. Meanwhile, the price of eggs is currently approaching the reference price,” explained Trade Minister Lutfi.
Meanwhile, Ikhsan said that inflation must be maintained at a normal level of 3+1 percent. Meanwhile, in 2021, inflation will be recorded at 1.87 percent, which means that it is below normal. The achievement of 2021 reflects the still low demand.
In addition, it was also due to the success in controlling volatile food inflation, which was the lowest in the last four years. Maintaining normal inflation is done by maintaining production, maintaining changes in supply so that domestic stocks remain, and keeping administered prices from rising.
According to Ikhsan, in 2022 there are several risks that must be faced. Among other things, regarding volatile food, the increase in food prices during Eid, Christmas, and New Year must be maintained. In addition, there is an increase in commodity prices such as cooking oil and anticipation of weather conditions.
“This matter must be watched out especially in the first quarter. For this reason, mitigation needs to be prepared, for example by increasing stocks so that inflation in volatile foods can be maintained. What must also be anticipated is the increase in energy prices. It is hoped that this will move to a normal pattern so that pressure on administered prices can be reduced,” explained Ikhsan.
On the other hand, Arsjad said that the policies and structural reforms being carried out were very helpful. In addition, the Job Creation Law will create more investment and increase the ease of doing business for micro, small and medium enterprises.
“In 2022, the thing that must be improved together is employment. In terms of investment, employment was recorded at 5.9 percent on an annual basis. So, there is still homework on how to optimally absorb labor. In addition, what must be considered is also related to logistics so that existing opportunities can be maximized,” said Arsjad. ***
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